Phoenix real estate expert shares 2023 market trends, buyer strategies, and seller tips in a competitive, low-inventory market
n a recent episode of the AZ Big Podcast, Trevor Halpern, owner of Halpern Residential, shared valuable insights into the current state of the Phoenix housing market and offered practical advice for both homebuyers and sellers navigating today’s conditions. Listen here!
A Market Shift: Strong Seller Advantage
Midway through 2023, the residential real estate market looks very different from the previous year. While 2022 saw rising interest rates push home values down, 2023 has brought a rebound. Home values are up roughly 6% year-to-date, with continued upward pressure driven by a major imbalance between supply and demand.
Inventory is way down, we’re seeing about half the normal level of inventory that we normally have. Despite higher mortgage rates, buyer demand remains strong—firmly positioning Phoenix as a seller’s market.
Low Inventory Driving Competition
With fewer homes available, sellers are often seeing multiple offers within days—or even hours—of listing. For real estate professionals, this means prioritizing listings and maximizing exposure to generate competitive bidding.
For buyers, speed is critical. Halpern emphasizes the importance of acting quickly when a desirable property hits the market. Waiting to compare multiple homes can result in missed opportunities, especially when well-priced homes attract immediate attention.
Population Growth Fueling Demand
Phoenix continues to experience rapid population growth, with approximately 200 new residents arriving daily. However, new construction has not kept pace. Building permits are significantly lower than in previous years, contributing to the housing shortage.
This imbalance is also driving growth in multifamily housing, as developers attempt to meet demand where single-family supply falls short.
Is Phoenix Still Affordable?
While Phoenix remains more affordable than major West Coast cities like Los Angeles or San Francisco, housing costs are now above the national average. This has created challenges for middle-income buyers, including essential workers such as teachers, nurses, and first responders.
However, there are programs available—such as down payment assistance and special lending options—that can help improve affordability for qualified buyers.
Short-Term Rental Market Impact
The surge in short-term rental investments during the пандемic may be leveling off. Data suggests that the market could be oversaturated, with some Airbnb properties struggling to achieve expected occupancy rates—even during major events like the Super Bowl.
This could lead to an increase in available inventory if investors decide to sell or convert properties to long-term rentals.
Hot Neighborhoods in Phoenix
While demand exists across the Valley, several areas continue to stand out:
- Arcadia: Consistently high demand and strong price resilience
- Paradise Valley: Emerging as a strong seller’s market
- Historic districts like Encanto-Palmcroft and Willo: Popular for their proximity to downtown amenities
- Areas near the redeveloping Paradise Valley Mall: Expected to see future appreciation
Advice for Homebuyers
Halpern encourages buyers to focus less on daily interest rate fluctuations and more on their long-term needs. Key takeaways include:
- Get fully pre-qualified and understand financing options
- Work with experienced professionals
- Act quickly and submit strong offers
- Consider negotiating seller concessions to reduce interest rates
- Plan to stay in the home for at least five years
Advice for Sellers
Even in a seller’s market, preparation matters. Sellers can maximize their results by:
- Improving curb appeal with simple, cost-effective updates
- Decluttering and staging the home
- Pricing the property correctly from the start
- Allowing easy access for showings
- Hosting strategic open houses to create urgency and competition
Small improvements and smart pricing strategies can significantly increase buyer interest and lead to stronger offers.