Trevor Halpern breaks down Zillow’s latest housing report, explains why Phoenix home values remain stable, and shares what buyers and sellers should know about today’s market.
In this segment from @KTARNews, Trevor Halpern, CEO of Halpern Residential, breaks down the data to show what is actually happening in the Greater Phoenix real estate market. While Zillow suggests a decline, local data from the Cromford Report tells a different story: median sales prices are actually up 1.1% year-over-year.
Did Phoenix Home Values Really Fall?
A recent Zillow analysis made headlines by claiming that 87% of Phoenix homes have lost value compared to their peak prices. At first glance, that statistic sounds alarming and has many homeowners wondering whether the Phoenix real estate market is in trouble.
During an interview on KTAR News, Trevor Halpern, CEO of Halpern Residential at eXp Realty, explained why that headline doesn’t tell the full story.
The biggest question isn’t whether homes have lost value, but what point in time those values are being compared to.
During the pandemic housing boom, Phoenix experienced one of the fastest periods of appreciation in the country. Home prices surged rapidly as buyers relocated from higher-cost states and inventory reached historic lows. Comparing today’s prices to those extraordinary peaks naturally makes it appear that values have declined.
For most homeowners, however, the long-term picture is much stronger.
Long-Term Homeowners Still Have Significant Equity
While some homes may be worth slightly less than they were at the absolute peak of the market, homeowners who purchased several years ago remain in an excellent financial position.
Trevor explained that someone who purchased a home roughly 20 years ago has still experienced substantial appreciation and equity growth despite recent market adjustments.
Real estate has historically rewarded long-term ownership. Short-term fluctuations are normal, but over time, Phoenix homeowners have continued to build wealth through appreciation.
Zillow vs. Local Market Data
One of the biggest concerns Trevor addressed was relying solely on Zillow’s estimates.
While Zillow provides a useful starting point, its Zestimate is an automated estimate rather than an appraisal or market analysis. Because Zillow also uses its own data when publishing market reports, Trevor encourages homeowners to compare those findings with local market statistics.
According to The Cromford Report, one of the most trusted sources for Phoenix housing data:
- Median sale prices increased approximately 1.1% year over year.
- Average sale prices also showed positive annual growth.
- The overall Phoenix market has remained relatively stable.
Those numbers paint a much different picture than headlines suggesting widespread home value losses.
Migration Continues to Support Phoenix Home Values
Population growth remains one of the strongest drivers of Phoenix real estate.
Trevor explained that Arizona continues attracting residents from states such as California, Texas, and Alaska thanks to:
- A business-friendly environment
- Continued job growth
- Expanding technology industries
- Favorable tax policies
- Strong higher education opportunities
Although some longtime Arizona residents are relocating or retiring elsewhere, new buyers continue replacing them, helping maintain healthy demand across the market.
This ongoing migration creates stability even as the market becomes more balanced.
Phoenix Is Still a Buyer’s Market
Based on current market data, Phoenix remains statistically a buyer’s market.
Higher inventory levels compared to recent years give buyers more negotiating power, while sellers must price homes appropriately to attract offers.
At the same time, the market isn’t experiencing distress.
Instead, Trevor describes today’s market as one driven by needs rather than wants.
Many homeowners who don’t need to move are choosing to delay selling if they aren’t receiving their desired price. Likewise, buyers who don’t need immediate housing may wait for lower interest rates before purchasing.
This dynamic has reduced inventory and helped prevent significant price declines.
Builders Are Becoming More Cautious
Another important indicator comes from new home builders.
Trevor noted that builders are beginning to slow construction compared to previous years.
New construction costs remain elevated, and builders are offering stronger incentives—including paying full buyer-agent commissions—to attract qualified buyers.
Historically, builders reduce future construction when demand begins to soften. Rather than signaling a crash, this often helps prevent an oversupply of homes, supporting long-term market stability.
What Buyers and Sellers Should Take Away
The Phoenix housing market is no longer experiencing the rapid appreciation seen during the pandemic.
Instead, buyers and sellers are operating in a healthier, more balanced environment.
Although sensational headlines may suggest widespread declines, local market data indicates:
- Home values remain relatively stable.
- Long-term homeowners continue to hold significant equity.
- Migration continues supporting demand.
- Inventory has adjusted without creating a market collapse.
- Buyers have more negotiating power than they did several years ago.
For homeowners, investors, and buyers alike, understanding local market data—not just national headlines—is essential when making real estate decisions.
Final Thoughts
Headlines claiming that 87% of Phoenix homes have lost value don’t tell the complete story.
The Phoenix real estate market has shifted from the extraordinary conditions of the pandemic into a more balanced environment where buyers and sellers are negotiating on more equal footing. While appreciation has slowed, long-term homeowners remain well ahead, and local data continues to show a stable market with modest year-over-year growth.
If you’re considering buying or selling in today’s market, evaluating local trends and property-specific data will provide a much clearer picture than national headlines alone.